jason heyward fangraphs
Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. News; Wikipedia: . Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. Biggio knows right field well. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. But the power was largely absent. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. by Retrosheet. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Look at Jason Heyward. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Support FanGraphs. Heres a bomb to right. FanGraphs Mugs. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. by Retrosheet. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Some call it a sweeper. Thats just how it goes. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. That was awesome, Kapler said. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. by Retrosheet. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. FanGraphs Membership. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. I think thats in the ballpark. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. Heres why. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Our premise is that their bad (or Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. It really had good numbers on the computer. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. FanGraphs Shirts. Just ask Jason Heyward. Im a little stubborn in that way. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. We're asking for your help to make it. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Im not going to worry about it.. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The grounders are just about all pulled. No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. He went second to home on a single. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. . Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Higgins over one inning. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. fangraphs.com 1d. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Players are always free to change their minds about anything. As was the case with the offensive player-comps group, Heyward is more accomplished than almost all of the players on this list. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. The Cubs released Heyward. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. Its not surprising. Heyward will get paid. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. The team is confident in . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Gavin Lux is likely . One spring of spring-training data. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. Im not all that mad about it. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Handedness. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years.
